Sumário
1. Situação da produção de laranja na Flórida
1.1 Previsão de safra
1.2 Influência dos furacões
1.3 Importação de suco de laranja pelos EUA
2. Mercado brasileiro de laranja
2.1 Liquidez no mercado
2.2 Preços da lima tahiti
Introdução
A produção de laranja na Flórida está projetada para ser baixa por mais um ano. Segundo estimativas do USDA divulgadas em outubro, a colheita da safra 2023/24 na Flórida deverá totalizar 20,5 milhões de caixas de 40,8 quilogramas cada, sendo 7,5 milhões de variedades de temporada inicial e média e 13 milhões de laranjas valência.
Embora esse volume seja considerado baixo, ainda é 30% maior do que o da última temporada, quando dois furacões atingiram a Flórida – Ian, em setembro de 2022, e Nicole, em novembro de 2022. Apesar do furacão Idalia ter atingido o Estado da Flórida no final de agosto/23, os danos não foram tão graves.
É importante mencionar que essa produção não é suficiente para atender à demanda dos EUA, portanto, espera-se que o país continue importando grandes quantidades de suco de laranja – e o Brasil é o principal fornecedor dessa commodity para eles. Essa situação piora considerando-se os estoques locais, que estão diminuindo ano após ano.
No mercado brasileiro, a liquidez foi alta na primeira quinzena de outubro, apesar do feriado no dia 12 (Dia de Nossa Senhora Aparecida). Segundo colaboradores do Cepea, a menor oferta e a maior demanda sustentaram os preços. Por outro lado, para a lima tahiti, os valores caíram, influenciados pela menor demanda e aumento da oferta.
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Cepea, October 17th, 2023 – Orange production is expected to be low in Florida for one more year. According to estimates from the USDA released on October 12th, the harvest of the 2023/24 crop in FL is forecast to total 20.5 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms each, of which 7.5 million of early and mid-season varieties and 13 million, valência oranges.
Although that volume is considered low, it is still 30% higher than that from last season, when two hurricanes hit Florida – Ian, in September 2022, and Nicole, in November 2022. Although hurricane Idalia hit Florida State in late August/23, damages were not that severe.
It is important to mention that this output is not enough to meet the demand from the US, thus, the country is expected to continue to import high amounts of orange juice – and Brazil is the major supplier of the commodity to them. This scenario becomes worse when the local inventories are considered, since they are decreasing year after year.
BRAZILIAN MARKET – Liquidity was high in the Brazilian orange market in the first fortnight of October, despite the holiday on the 12th (Day of Our Lady of Aparecida). According to Cepea collaborators, lower supply and higher demand underpinned prices. On the other hand, for tahiti lime, values dropped, influenced by lower demand and rising supply.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Low Orange Production Expected in Florida for Another Year
Overview
According to estimates from the USDA released on October 12th, the harvest of the 2023/24 crop in Florida is forecast to total 20.5 million boxes of oranges. This includes 7.5 million boxes of early and mid-season varieties and 13 million boxes of valência oranges.
Reasons for Low Production
Although the projected volume is considered low, it represents a 30% increase compared to the previous season. The low production can be attributed to the damages caused by two hurricanes in 2022 – Hurricane Ian in September and Hurricane Nicole in November. Although Hurricane Idalia hit Florida in late August 2023, the damages were not as severe.
Impact on Demand
The projected production is not enough to meet the demand for oranges in the US. As a result, the country is expected to continue importing large quantities of orange juice. Brazil remains the major supplier of orange juice to the US market. Additionally, the decreasing local inventories exacerbate the situation.
Brazilian Orange Market
Market Trends
The Brazilian orange market experienced high liquidity during the first half of October. Despite the holiday on the 12th, lower supply and increased demand supported prices. However, the market for tahiti lime witnessed a decline in values due to lower demand and higher supply.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Florida’s orange production is expected to remain low for another year. This has significant implications for the US market, which will continue to rely on imports from Brazil. The Brazilian orange market has seen positive trends in terms of liquidity and prices, although tahiti lime prices have declined due to market dynamics.
(Source: Cepea-Brazil)
Este texto não reflete, necessariamente, a opinião do Jornal Do Campo
In conclusion, the orange production in Florida is expected to remain low for another year, with a forecasted harvest of 20.5 million boxes. Although this volume is 30% higher than last season, it is still considered low and insufficient to meet the demand in the US. As a result, the country will continue to rely on imports, with Brazil being the major supplier of orange juice. The Brazilian orange market, on the other hand, has seen high liquidity in October, with prices supported by lower supply and higher demand. However, the market for tahiti lime has experienced a drop in prices due to lower demand and rising supply.
Related questions:
1. What is the expected orange production in Florida for the next year?
The expected orange production in Florida for the next year is forecasted to be 20.5 million boxes.
2. How does this volume compare to last season?
This volume is 30% higher than last season’s orange production.
3. Is the expected production enough to meet the demand in the US?
No, the expected production is not enough to meet the demand in the US. The country will continue to import high amounts of orange juice.
4. Who is the major supplier of orange juice to the US?
Brazil is the major supplier of orange juice to the US.
5. How has the Brazilian orange market been in October?
The Brazilian orange market has seen high liquidity in October, with prices supported by lower supply and higher demand.
