Sumário
1. Introdução
2. Impacto do preço do café arábica
2.1. Níveis baixos de preço
2.2. Desinteresse dos vendedores
2.3. Foco nas safras futuras
3. Perspectivas para o café arábica
3.1. Expectativas de clima favorável
3.2. Preocupações com a onda de calor e chuvas intensas
4. Situação do café robusta
4.1. Possíveis danos causados pelas altas temperaturas e tempestades
5. Preços do café
Introdução
O preço do café arábica tem apresentado uma queda significativa, preocupando os produtores. Além disso, os vendedores estão desinteressados em negociar devido aos baixos valores. Por outro lado, os agricultores têm focado suas atenções nas safras futuras e nas perspectivas climáticas favoráveis. Neste artigo, discutiremos o impacto do preço do café arábica, as perspectivas para a safra e a situação do café robusta.
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Cepea, October 17th, 2023 – Arabica coffee prices – which were higher than BRL 1,100 per 60-kg bag a year ago – have been around BRL 800.00/bag in October, level considered low by coffee growers. It is important to mention that the beans currently available in the national spot market come from crops treated with inputs purchased at very high prices.
Thus, many sellers have been disinterested in trading coffee, and the few deals being closed were for low volumes and due to cash flow needs. It is important to highlight that, currently, many growers have no sales needs, since, at this time of the year, they do not have many expenses in the short term. And as most of the output from this season is stocked, some of the agents consulted by Cepea have been concerned about selling it.
Sellers have been focused on crops and the expectations for the 2024/25 season. Crops are developing in Brazil, and growers expect the weather favors production. The recent rains are supposed to favor crop management, such as fertilizing.
However, some growers are still concerned about both the possible effects of the heat wave that hit Brazil in late September and high rainfall this month. Another blooming event was expected in arabica crops in the first half of October, in nearly all the regions that produce this variety, favored by the recent rains.
As for robusta coffee, Cepea collaborators reported that, in Espírito Santo State, despite the good blooming, the recent high temperatures and frequent storms may have damaged crops. In Rondônia State, the blooming induced in mid-July and August is turning into flower buds already, but a significant volume was burned by the heat wave from late September.
PRICES – On Oct. 13th, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for arabica coffee type 6, delivered to São Paulo city, closed at BRL 819.47 (USD 160.93) per 60-kg bag, 5.07% higher than that on Sept. 29th. For robusta coffee, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Espírito Santo) for the type 6, screen 13, closed at BRL 636.45 (USD 124.99)/bag, 1.38% down in the same comparison.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Arabica Coffee Prices Reach Low Levels, Causing Concern among Growers
In October, the prices of arabica coffee have dropped to around BRL 800.00 per 60-kg bag, a significant decrease from the BRL 1,100 per bag price observed a year ago. The current price level is considered low by coffee growers, who are facing challenges due to the high costs of inputs used in crop production. This situation has led to a decrease in trading activity, with sellers showing disinterest and only closing deals for low volumes based on cash flow needs.
Sellers’ Focus Shifts to Future Crops
Given the current market conditions, sellers have shifted their focus to the expectations for the 2024/25 season and the development of future crops. In Brazil, where coffee crops are growing, growers are hopeful that favorable weather conditions will support production. The recent rainfall in particular is expected to benefit crop management practices, such as fertilizing.
Growers’ Concerns and Challenges
However, despite the positive outlook, some growers still have concerns regarding potential adverse effects caused by a previous heat wave in late September and high rainfall in recent weeks. They anticipate another blooming event in arabica crops during the first half of October, which is expected to be boosted by the recent rainstorms. In Espírito Santo State, where robusta coffee is grown, the recent high temperatures and storms may have damaged the crops. In Rondônia State, the heat wave also had a negative impact on the plants, causing significant volume loss.
Price Trends
On October 13th, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for arabica coffee type 6, delivered to São Paulo city, closed at BRL 819.47 (USD 160.93) per 60-kg bag, representing a 5.07% increase compared to September 29th. Conversely, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for robusta coffee in Espírito Santo State for type 6, screen 13, closed at BRL 636.45 (USD 124.99) per bag, indicating a 1.38% decrease in the same period of comparison.
(Source: Cepea-Brazil)
Este texto não reflete, necessariamente, a opinião do Jornal Do Campo
Conclusion
The current Arabica coffee prices in Brazil are considered low by coffee growers, causing disinterest in trading among sellers. Many growers have no sales needs at this time, as most of the output from this season is already stocked. Sellers are now focused on the crops and expectations for the 2024/25 season.
Questions and Answers
1. What are the current Arabica coffee prices in Brazil?
The Arabica coffee prices in Brazil are around BRL 800.00 per 60-kg bag in October.
2. Why are coffee growers disinterested in trading coffee?
Coffee growers are disinterested in trading coffee due to the low prices and the beans being treated with expensive inputs.
3. What are sellers currently focused on?
Sellers are currently focused on crops and the expectations for the 2024/25 season.
4. Why are some growers still concerned about the weather?
Some growers are still concerned about the weather because of the heat wave in late September and high rainfall this month.
5. What are the recent price trends for Arabica and Robusta coffee?
On Oct. 13th, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for Arabica coffee type 6 closed at BRL 819.47 per 60-kg bag, 5.07% higher than the previous week. For Robusta coffee, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for type 6 closed at BRL 636.45 per bag, 1.38% lower than the previous week.
