Summary:
1. Crop Activities and Weather Monitoring
1.1 Wheat Harvest Stepping Up
1.2 Growers Concerned About Rains
2. Official Estimates by Conab
2.1 Lower Productivity and Output Forecast
2.2 Increase in Wheat Crop Area
2.3 Imports and Availability
2.4 Consumption and Exports
2.5 Ending Stocks
3. Brazilian Crops and Harvest Progress
4. Wheat Prices in the Wholesale Market
Introduction:
The Importance of Crop Activities and Weather Monitoring in the Brazilian Wheat Industry
Cepea, October 17th, 2023 – Brazilian agents focused on crop activities and monitoring the weather in the first fortnight of October. The harvest began to step up in the major wheat-producing states (Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná), but rains are still concerning growers.
Official estimates released by Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply) in the first half of the month pointed to lower productivity and output in Brazil. The crop currently being harvested is forecast to total 10.46 million tons, 3.3% lower than that estimated in September and 0.9% below the record set last season. The area allocated to wheat crops in Brazil is estimated to be 12.1% larger than that last season, at 3.46 million hectares, however, crops’ productivity is forecast at 3.02 tons/hectare, 3.6% lower than that estimated in September and 11.6% below that from 2022 (3.42 tons/hectare), according to Conab.
As for imports, Conab kept estimates stable, at five million tons (between August/23 and July/24). Wheat availability in Brazil is expected to be 2.2% lower than that reported in September, estimated at 16.2 million tons between Aug/23 and Jul/24, 2.6% higher than that last season.
Consumption is estimated by Conab to total 12.64 million tons, 2% higher than that estimated for the previous crop (Aug/22 – Jul/23). Exports estimates were kept at 2.6 million tons. Thus, by July/24, ending stocks would total 958.9 thousand tons, lower than that previously estimated but 29.5% higher than that last season.
BRAZILIAN CROPS – According to data from Conab, by October 7th, the wheat harvest had ended in Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás and Bahia States. In Minas Gerais, 99.6% had been harvested; in São Paulo, 75%; in Paraná, 69%; in Santa Catarina, 6%; and in Rio Grande do Sul, 3%.
Cepea surveys show that wheat prices faded in the wholesale market in the first week of October but reacted in the second week. Between October 6-13, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) dropped 3.5% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.39% in Santa Catarina, but rose 0.37% in Paraná. On the other hand, in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values increased 6.14% in São Paulo, 2.52% in PR and 1.85% in Rio Grande do Sul, but remained stable in Santa Catarina.
(Cepea-Brazil)
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Cepea, October 17th, 2023 – Brazilian agents focused on crop activities and monitoring the weather in the first fortnight of October. The harvest began to step up in the major wheat-producing states (Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná), but rains are still concerning growers.
Official estimates released by Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply) in the first half of the month pointed to lower productivity and output in Brazil. The crop currently being harvested is forecast to total 10.46 million tons, 3.3% lower than that estimated in September and 0.9% below the record set last season. The area allocated to wheat crops in Brazil is estimated to be 12.1% larger than that last season, at 3.46 million hectares, however, crops’ productivity is forecast at 3.02 tons/hectare, 3.6% lower than that estimated in September and 11.6% below that from 2022 (3.42 tons/hectare), according to Conab.
As for imports, Conab kept estimates stable, at five million tons (between August/23 and July/24). Wheat availability in Brazil is expected to be 2.2% lower than that reported in September, estimated at 16.2 million tons between Aug/23 and Jul/24, 2.6% higher than that last season.
Consumption is estimated by Conab to total 12.64 million tons, 2% higher than that estimated for the previous crop (Aug/22 – Jul/23). Exports estimates were kept at 2.6 million tons. Thus, by July/24, ending stocks would total 958.9 thousand tons, lower than that previously estimated but 29.5% higher than that last season.
BRAZILIAN CROPS – According to data from Conab, by October 7th, the wheat harvest had ended in Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás and Bahia States. In Minas Gerais, 99.6% had been harvested; in São Paulo, 75%; in Paraná, 69%; in Santa Catarina, 6%; and in Rio Grande do Sul, 3%.
Cepea surveys show that wheat prices faded in the wholesale market in the first week of October but reacted in the second week. Between October 6-13, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) dropped 3.5% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.39% in Santa Catarina, but rose 0.37% in Paraná. On the other hand, in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values increased 6.14% in São Paulo, 2.52% in PR and 1.85% in Rio Grande do Sul, but remained stable in Santa Catarina.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Crop Activities and Weather Monitoring in Brazil
Introduction
In the first half of October, Brazilian agents were focused on crop activities and monitoring the weather. The major wheat-producing states, Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, saw an increase in harvest activity. However, concerns about rains persisted among growers.
Lower Productivity and Output Estimates
Official estimates released by Conab indicated lower productivity and output for this year’s wheat crop in Brazil. The current harvest is forecasted to reach 10.46 million tons, which is 3.3% lower than the September estimate and 0.9% below the previous season’s record. The area allocated to wheat crops is 12.1% larger than the previous season, at 3.46 million hectares. However, productivity is expected to be 3.6% lower than the September estimate and 11.6% below last year’s figure, at 3.02 tons/hectare.
Imports and Availability
Conab maintained stable import estimates at five million tons between August 2023 and July 2024. Wheat availability in Brazil is projected to be 2.2% lower than the September report, reaching 16.2 million tons during the same period, which represents a 2.6% increase compared to the previous season.
Consumption and Exports
Consumption is estimated to total 12.64 million tons, which is 2% higher than the previous crop. Export estimates remained at 2.6 million tons. Consequently, the ending stocks by July 2024 are expected to reach 958.9 thousand tons, lower than the previous estimate but 29.5% higher than the previous season.
Brazilian Wheat Harvest Progress
Harvest Completion in Various States
According to data from Conab, the wheat harvest had already concluded in Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, and Bahia states by October 7th. In Minas Gerais, 99.6% of the harvest had been completed, while in São Paulo, it reached 75%. Paraná had harvested 69% of its wheat, while Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul had harvested 6% and 3%, respectively.
Price Trends in the Wheat Market
Fluctuations in Wholesale Market Prices
Cepea surveys revealed that wheat prices experienced fluctuations in the wholesale market during the first two weeks of October. Prices initially declined, but then rebounded. Over this period, prices paid to wheat farmers decreased by 3.5% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.39% in Santa Catarina. In contrast, prices increased by 0.37% in Paraná. In the wholesale market, prices rose by 6.14% in São Paulo, 2.52% in Paraná, and 1.85% in Rio Grande do Sul, while remaining stable in Santa Catarina.
(Cepea-Brazil)
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Conclusão
As estimativas oficiais divulgadas pela Conab indicam uma produtividade e produção menores no Brasil. A colheita de trigo está se intensificando nos principais estados produtores (Rio Grande do Sul e Paraná), mas as chuvas ainda preocupam os agricultores. Apesar do aumento da área destinada ao cultivo de trigo, a produtividade está prevista para ser menor do que no ano passado. Em relação às importações, a Conab manteve suas estimativas estáveis, enquanto o consumo e as exportações devem aumentar. No geral, os preços do trigo oscilaram no mercado atacadista nas primeiras semanas de outubro.
Perguntas e Respostas
1. Quais são os principais estados produtores de trigo no Brasil?
Os principais estados produtores de trigo no Brasil são Rio Grande do Sul e Paraná.
2. Qual é a previsão de produtividade para a safra atual de trigo?
A previsão de produtividade para a safra atual de trigo é de 3,02 toneladas/hectare, 3,6% menor do que a estimativa anterior.
3. Quais são as estimativas de importação de trigo para o Brasil?
As estimativas de importação de trigo para o Brasil são de cinco milhões de toneladas.
4. Qual é a previsão de consumo de trigo no Brasil?
A previsão de consumo de trigo no Brasil é de 12,64 milhões de toneladas, um aumento de 2% em relação à safra anterior.
5. Como os preços do trigo se comportaram no mercado atacadista?
Os preços do trigo apresentaram oscilações no mercado atacadista, com queda em alguns estados e aumento em outros durante as primeiras semanas de outubro.
