Sumário
1. Cattle
1.1 Resumption of beef exports
1.2 Increase in domestic cattle prices
1.3 Comparison of current prices with previous years
2. Swine
2.1 Pork meat exports
2.2 Increase in domestic hog prices
2.3 Regional variations in hog prices
3. Poultry
3.1 Decrease in chicken meat exports
3.2 Decrease in revenue
3.3 Impact on different export destinations
Introdução
Este artigo aborda as recentes tendências e desenvolvimentos nos setores pecuário, suíno e avícola no Brasil. Serão discutidos os impactos das exportações, os preços domésticos e as perspectivas futuras para essas indústrias.
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Cepea, October 17th, 2023
CATTLE – The Brazilian exports of beef (in natura) resumed nearing 200 thousand tons in September, which helped to push up the domestic prices for fed cattle. Cattle valuations have been observed in Brazil since early September, due to an adjustment in the supply of animals ready for slaughter.
Thus, between August 31st and September 29th, the CEPEA/B3 Index for fed cattle (São Paulo State) rose a staggering 18.2%, ending the month at BRL 236.15 per arroba (15 kg) – in August, this Index had dropped a steep 18% too. In the first fortnight of October (until the 16th), fed cattle prices rose 3.09%, closing at BRL 243.45 (USD 48.29) on Oct. 16th.
Last month, according to data from Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat), Brazil exported 195.07 thousand tons of beef (in natura), 5.24% more than that shipped in August/23, but 3.9% less than the volume exported in September 2022. However, last month’s performance was the second best for a month of September, only lower than that last year, when Brazil exported 203.02 thousand tons of the product.
Still according to Secex, along 2023, Brazil has exported 1.4 million tons of beef, 5.44% less than the record shipped in the same period last year.
The prices paid for the Brazilian beef are still at low levels, having increased a slight 0.58% between August and September, to BRL 4,536.9/ton last month. However, compared to that a year ago, prices have dropped a steep 24.45%, according to Secex. The average price this year is at USD 4,804.2/ton, 21.16% lower than that in the first nine months of 2022.
As the volumes being exported are still high – and although prices are fading this year –, the revenue received in September hit the second highest level in 2023, totaling USD 88.02 million, 5.84% higher than that from August, but 14.08% lower than that in January 2023. In 12 months, revenue decreased a steep 27.36% (Secex).
The revenue received this year is currently at USD 6.83 billion, the second highest in all times, only lower than that from 2022 (by 25.6%), when it totaled USD 9.18 billion.
SWINE – The prices for pork products increased in Brazil in September, favored by the high performance of pork meat exports and the warm demand in the domestic market.
According to data from Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat), Brazil exported 98.5 thousand tons of pork meat (in natura) in September, a slight 1.5% down from that in August, but 4.4% higher than the volume shipped in September 2022. The monthly decrease was linked to the lower number of working days last month.
The daily average of shipments in September closed at 4.9 thousand tons, a staggering 13.2% higher than that from August and 9.7% above that in Sept/22. Also, this is the second highest daily average of shipments in the series of Secex (only lower than the 5.2 thousand tons from April/23), which began in 1997.
In the domestic market, low animal supply, mainly within the ideal weight for slaughter, and high demand pushed up the prices for live hogs and pork meat, underpinning the monthly averages.
In the first fortnight of October, hog prices followed opposite directions between the regions surveyed by Cepea, according to local supply and demand. In southeastern Brazil, where sales were higher, prices increased, while in northern Paraná, hog prices faded. In Goiânia (GO), values remained stable.
POULTRY – Both the volume of chicken meat exported (in natura and processed) and the revenue received by exporters decreased in September. However, the daily average of shipments increased.
According to data from Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat), Brazil exported 397.1 thousand tons of chicken meat last month, 11.1% less than that shipped in August and 0.6% down from that in Sept/22.
The revenue received in dollars totaled USD 719.3 million, 13.4% lower than that from August and 13.3% down from that in Sept/22. In Reais, the revenue received in September totaled BRL 3.5 billion, 12.6% down in the monthly comparison and 18% lower in the annual comparison, still according to data from Secex.
Despite the monthly decreases, the exports’ performance was high, since the daily average of shipments was higher than that from August – the lower number of working days in September limited the revenue. The daily average of shipments closed at 18.7 thousand tons, 3.1% higher than that from August and 8% above that from Sept/22.
As for the destinations for the Brazilian chicken meat, the decrease in the total exported is a reflex of lower purchases from the United Arab Emirates (-25%), Saudi Arabia (-24%), Japan (-16.9%) and South Africa (-18.8%), to which Brazil sent 35.2 thousand tons, 28.2 thousand tons, 24.9 thousand tons and 20.6 thousand tons, respectively. To China, Brazil’s major commercial partner, the volume exported increased 8.1%, from 52.8 thousand tons in August to 57.1 thousand tons in September.
(Cepea-Brazil)
CATTLE
Resumption of Brazilian Beef Exports Boosts Domestic Prices
In September, Brazilian beef exports (in natura) reached nearly 200 thousand tons, contributing to an increase in domestic cattle prices. The supply of animals ready for slaughter has been adjusted since early September, resulting in higher cattle valuations in Brazil.
Between August 31st and September 29th, the CEPEA/B3 Index for fed cattle in São Paulo State rose by 18.2%, reaching BRL 236.15 per 15 kg. This significant increase followed a steep 18% drop in August. In the first half of October, fed cattle prices rose by 3.09%, closing at BRL 243.45 (USD 48.29) on October 16th.
Brazil exported 195.07 thousand tons of beef in September, according to data from Secex, representing a 5.24% increase compared to August. However, this volume was 3.9% lower than the amount shipped in September 2022. Despite the decrease, September 2023’s performance was the second-best for that month, only surpassed by September 2022’s record of 203.02 thousand tons of exported beef.
Year-to-date, Brazil has exported 1.4 million tons of beef, 5.44% less than the previous year’s record.
Although the prices for Brazilian beef remain low, there has been a slight increase of 0.58% between August and September, reaching BRL 4,536.9/ton. However, prices have dropped significantly by 24.45% compared to the previous year. The average price this year is USD 4,804.2/ton, representing a 21.16% decrease compared to the first nine months of 2022.
Despite the fading prices, the high export volumes have resulted in the second-highest revenue received in 2023. In September, the revenue totaled USD 88.02 million, a 5.84% increase compared to August but a 14.08% decrease compared to January 2023. In the last 12 months, revenue has decreased by 27.36%.
To date, the revenue received in 2023 is USD 6.83 billion, the second-highest in history, only lower than the record of USD 9.18 billion in 2022.
SWINE
Pork Prices Increase in Brazil due to Exports and Strong Domestic Demand
Pork prices in Brazil experienced an increase in September, driven by the high performance of pork meat exports and strong domestic demand.
Secex data shows that Brazil exported 98.5 thousand tons of pork meat (in natura) in September, a slight decrease of 1.5% compared to August but a 4.4% increase compared to September 2022. The decrease was attributed to fewer working days in September.
The daily average of pork meat shipments in September reached 4.9 thousand tons, a significant increase of 13.2% compared to August and 9.7% compared to September 2022. This daily average is the second-highest in the history of Secex records, only surpassed by April 2023’s 5.2 thousand tons.
In the domestic market, the limited supply of animals, particularly those within the ideal weight for slaughter, combined with high demand, led to increased prices for live hogs and pork meat.
In the first half of October, hog prices varied across regions surveyed by Cepea, depending on local supply and demand. Prices increased in southeastern Brazil, remained stable in Goiânia (GO), and decreased in northern Paraná.
POULTRY
Chicken Meat Exports Decline in September, while Daily Average Shipments Increase
In September, both the volume and revenue of Brazilian chicken meat exports (in natura and processed) decreased. However, the daily average of shipments increased.
According to Secex data, Brazil exported 397.1 thousand tons of chicken meat in September, representing an 11.1% decrease compared to August and a 0.6% decrease compared to September 2022.
The revenue received in dollars totaled USD 719.3 million, a 13.4% decrease compared to August and a 13.3% decrease compared to September 2022. In Brazilian Reais, the revenue received in September reached BRL 3.5 billion, showing a 12.6% decrease compared to the previous month and an 18% decrease compared to the same month last year.
Despite the monthly decline, the daily average of chicken meat shipments in September was higher than in August due to fewer working days. The daily average reached 18.7 thousand tons, a 3.1% increase compared to August and an 8% increase compared to September 2022.
The decrease in total exports was influenced by lower purchases from the United Arab Emirates (-25%), Saudi Arabia (-24%), Japan (-16.9%), and South Africa (-18.8%). However, exports to China, Brazil’s major commercial partner, increased by 8.1% to 57.1 thousand tons in September.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Este texto não reflete, necessariamente, a opinião do Jornal Do Campo
Conclusão
Em conclusão, as exportações de carne bovina e suína brasileiras tiveram desempenhos diferentes em setembro de 2023. Enquanto as exportações de carne bovina aumentaram, impulsionando os preços internos da carne de boi, as exportações de carne suína permaneceram estáveis, com preços elevados no mercado interno. Por outro lado, as exportações de carne de frango diminuíram, mas o desempenho diário de remessas foi positivo. Overall, o setor de carnes no Brasil ainda enfrenta desafios, como preços baixos e diminuição das exportações, mas as oportunidades de mercado, como o aumento da demanda internacional, continuam a impulsionar o setor.
Perguntas e Respostas
1. Qual foi o desempenho das exportações de carne bovina em setembro de 2023?
As exportações de carne bovina (in natura) do Brasil retomaram, chegando perto de 200 mil toneladas em setembro de 2023. Isso ajudou a impulsionar os preços internos da carne de boi.
2. O que causou a valorização do gado no Brasil em setembro?
A valorização do gado no Brasil em setembro foi causada por um ajuste no fornecimento de animais prontos para abate.
3. Como foram as exportações de carne suína do Brasil em setembro?
As exportações de carne suína do Brasil permaneceram estáveis em setembro de 2023, impulsionadas pelo alto desempenho das exportações e demanda aquecida no mercado interno.
4. Qual foi o desempenho das exportações de carne de frango em setembro?
As exportações de carne de frango do Brasil diminuíram em setembro de 2023. No entanto, o desempenho diário das remessas aumentou.
5. Quais foram os principais destinos das exportações de carne de frango do Brasil em setembro?
No mês de setembro, houve uma diminuição nas compras dos Emirados Árabes Unidos, Arábia Saudita, Japão e África do Sul. No entanto, as exportações para a China aumentaram.
