Sumário:
1. Queda nos preços da soja no mercado brasileiro
1.1. Pressão do dólar e colheita nos Estados Unidos
1.2. Redução na demanda da soja brasileira
2. Índices de preço da soja
2.1. Variação no Índice ESALQ/BM&FBovespa (Paranaguá)
2.2. Variação no Índice CEPEA/ESALQ (Paraná)
3. Estimativas de produção de soja
3.1. Estimativa de produção nos Estados Unidos
3.2. Estimativa de produção no Brasil
Introdução:
Queda nos preços da soja no mercado brasileiro
A soja é um dos principais produtos agrícolas do Brasil e seu preço no mercado nacional pode ser influenciado por diversos fatores. Nas últimas semanas, observou-se uma queda nos preços da soja, impactando tanto o mercado interno quanto o internacional.
Este artigo abordará os principais motivos para essa queda nos preços, como a pressão do dólar e o avanço da colheita nos Estados Unidos. Além disso, serão analisados os índices de preço da soja e as estimativas de produção nos Estados Unidos e no Brasil.
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Cepea, October 17th, 2023 – Soybean prices dropped in the Brazilian market in the first fortnight of October. Pressure came from both the dollar depreciation against the Real between October 6-11 and the progress of the soybean harvest in the United States – by Oct. 8th, 43% of the national soybean crop had been harvested in the US, according to the USDA. This context led importers to the Northern Hemisphere and resulted in lower demand for the Brazilian soybean.
Between Sept. 29th and Oct. 13th, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa soybean Index (Paranaguá) and the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) decreased a slight 0.38% and 1%, respectively, to BRL 143.40 per 60-kg bag (USD 28.16)/bag and BRL 136.23 (USD 26.75)/bag on Oct. 13th.
According to a report from the USDA released on Oct. 12th, the estimates for the American output of soybean in the 2023/24 crop were revised down by 1% compared to that predicted in September, to 11.7 million tons, the lowest since 2019/20, when the US produced less than 100 million tons.
However, the higher output in South America is expected to offset the lower supply in the Northern Hemisphere. Thus, the world output is estimated at 399.5 million tons by the USDA. Brazil is expected to produce 163 million tons, according to the USDA, and 162 million tons, according to Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), almost two-fold (+92%) that from 2022/23.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Soybean prices drop in the Brazilian market
Reasons for the drop
In the first half of October, soybean prices in the Brazilian market experienced a decline. This drop in prices can be attributed to two main factors. Firstly, there was a depreciation of the dollar against the Real between October 6th and 11th. Secondly, the progress of the soybean harvest in the United States also contributed to the decrease in prices. According to the USDA, by October 8th, 43% of the national soybean crop had already been harvested in the US. As a result, importers turned to the Northern Hemisphere, resulting in lower demand for Brazilian soybean.
Price index decrease
Between September 29th and October 13th, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa soybean Index (Paranaguá) and the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) saw a slight decrease of 0.38% and 1% respectively. As a result, the price stood at BRL 143.40 per 60-kg bag (USD 28.16) and BRL 136.23 per bag (USD 26.75) at the end of this period.
Soybean output forecast
According to a report released by the USDA on October 12th, the forecast for the American soybean output for the 2023/24 crop was revised down by 1% compared to the earlier prediction made in September. The new estimate stands at 11.7 million tons, which is the lowest output since 2019/20 when the US produced less than 100 million tons.
Compensating factors
Despite the decrease in soybean output in the Northern Hemisphere, a higher output is expected in South America. Therefore, it is anticipated that the lower supply from the Northern Hemisphere will be offset by the increased output from South America. The USDA estimates that the world soybean output will be around 399.5 million tons. Brazil is expected to play a significant role in this, as it is projected to produce 163 million tons according to the USDA and 162 million tons according to Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply). These estimates indicate a growth rate of approximately 92% compared to the previous year (2022/23).
(Source: Cepea-Brazil)
Este texto não reflete, necessariamente, a opinião do Jornal Do Campo
Conclusion
Overall, soybean prices in the Brazilian market decreased in the first fortnight of October. This can be attributed to the depreciation of the dollar against the Real and the progress of the soybean harvest in the United States. The lower demand for Brazilian soybean from importers in the Northern Hemisphere has led to a drop in prices.
Q: What factors contributed to the drop in soybean prices in Brazil?
A: The drop in soybean prices in Brazil can be attributed to the depreciation of the dollar against the Real and the progress of the soybean harvest in the United States.
Q: How much of the US soybean crop had been harvested by October 8th?
A: According to the USDA, 43% of the national soybean crop had been harvested in the US by October 8th.
Q: What were the changes in the estimates for the American output of soybean?
A: The estimates for the American output of soybean in the 2023/24 crop were revised down by 1% compared to the previous predictions, reaching 11.7 million tons.
Q: What is the expected world output of soybean?
A: The USDA estimates the world output of soybean to be 399.5 million tons. Brazil is expected to produce 163 million tons, according to the USDA and 162 million tons according to Conab.
