Sumário
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Preços de milho aumentam no Brasil
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Saída de vendedores do mercado impulsiona os preços
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Demanda internacional por milho está alta
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Colheita da segunda safra de milho está quase finalizada
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Excesso de chuvas preocupa produtores de milho
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Estimativas apontam para uma safra recorde em 2022/23, porém com redução em 2023/24
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Consumo de milho deve aumentar, enquanto as exportações diminuem
Introdução
Os preços do milho tiveram um aumento significativo no Brasil durante a primeira quinzena de outubro. Esse aumento foi impulsionado principalmente pela ausência de vendedores no mercado, que já haviam obtido fluxo de caixa e não precisaram liberar espaço nos armazéns no início do mês. Além disso, a demanda internacional por milho tem sido alta, e alguns compradores brasileiros estão interessados em reabastecer seus estoques.
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Cepea, October 17th, 2023 – Corn prices increased in Brazil in the first fortnight of October, mainly boosted by the absence of sellers from the market – these agents have made cash flow and did not need to make room in warehouses in the first half of the month. Besides, the international demand for corn has been high, and some Brazilian purchasers are interested in replenishing inventories.
On October 10th and 11th, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa for corn (Campinas, SP) surpassed BRL 60.00 per 60-kg bag again, nominal level last observed in May. Between September 19th and October 13th, this Index rose 3.95%, closing at BRL 59.74 (USD 11.73)/bag on Oct. 13th.
CROPS – According to data from Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), 99.9% of the second crop of corn had been harvested by Oct. 7th. As for the summer crop, excessive rainfall, mainly in southern and southeastern Brazil, are concerning growers. By Oct. 7th, 26.8% of the national area had been sown, also according to Conab.
ESTIMATES – In a report released in the first fortnight of October, Conab continued to estimate a record production in the 2022/23 season, at 131.86 million tons, but lower than that forecast for the coming season (2023/24).
For 2023/24, the Brazilian production of corn is expected at 119.4 million tons, 9.5% lower than that in 2022/23, with the steepest decreases estimated for the second and third crops, which are supposed to total 91.21 million tons and 2 million tons, respectively, 10.7% and 13.5% lower than that in the current season. For the summer crop that is currently being sown, 26.26 million tons are expected to be harvested, 4.4% down.
Consumption is expected to be 6% higher, at 84.48 million tons, and exports, 27% lower, forecast at 38 million tons. Thus, in Jan/25, inventories are expected to total 9.3 million tons, lower than the 10 million tons estimated for 2022/23.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Corn prices increase in Brazil due to absence of sellers and high international demand
Cepea, October 17th, 2023 – In the first half of October, corn prices in Brazil witnessed an increase due to the absence of sellers in the market. These agents had already generated sufficient cash flow and did not require additional space in warehouses. Additionally, the international demand for corn remained high, leading to a surge in prices. Some Brazilian purchasers are also keen on replenishing their inventories.
Rise in Corn Prices
On October 10th and 11th, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa corn index in Campinas, SP rose above BRL 60.00 per 60-kg bag, reaching the nominal level last observed in May. The index exhibited a 3.95% increase between September 19th and October 13th, closing at BRL 59.74 (USD 11.73) per bag on October 13th.
Crop Updates
According to data from Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), the second crop of corn had been completely harvested by October 7th. However, excessive rainfall in southern and southeastern Brazil has caused concern among growers for the summer crop. As of October 7th, 26.8% of the national area had been sown.
Estimates for Corn Production
In a report released in the first fortnight of October, Conab continued to forecast a record corn production of 131.86 million tons for the 2022/23 season. However, this estimate is slightly lower compared to the predictions for the upcoming season (2023/24).
In the 2023/24 season, the Brazilian corn production is anticipated to reach 119.4 million tons, reflecting a 9.5% decrease compared to the 2022/23 season. The second and third crops are expected to witness the steepest declines at 10.7% and 13.5% respectively, with projected yields of 91.21 million tons and 2 million tons. The ongoing summer crop is forecasted to yield 26.26 million tons, representing a 4.4% decrease.
Consumption and Export Estimates
Corn consumption in Brazil is expected to rise by 6%, totaling 84.48 million tons. However, exports are anticipated to decline by 27% and estimated at 38 million tons. Consequently, inventories are projected to reach 9.3 million tons by January 2025, falling short of the estimated 10 million tons for the 2022/23 season.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Este texto não reflete, necessariamente, a opinião do Jornal Do Campo
Conclusion:
Corn prices in Brazil have increased in the first fortnight of October due to the absence of sellers in the market and the high international demand for corn. The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa for corn reached a nominal level last observed in May, reflecting this price surge. Overall, the forecasts suggest a decrease in corn production for the 2023/24 season compared to the current season.
1. What factors have contributed to the increase in corn prices in Brazil?
The absence of sellers from the market and the high international demand for corn have contributed to the increase in corn prices in Brazil.
2. What was the price level reached by the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa for corn?
The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa for corn surpassed BRL 60.00 per 60-kg bag, reaching a nominal level last observed in May.
3. What is the current status of corn crops in Brazil?
99.9% of the second crop of corn had been harvested by October 7th, and 26.8% of the national area had been sown for the summer crop.
4. What are the production estimates for the upcoming corn seasons?
For the 2022/23 season, the estimated production is a record of 131.86 million tons. However, for the 2023/24 season, the Brazilian production of corn is expected to be 9.5% lower at 119.4 million tons.
5. What are the expectations for corn consumption and exports?
Consumption is expected to be 6% higher at 84.48 million tons, while exports are forecasted to be 27% lower at 38 million tons. Inventories are expected to total 9.3 million tons by January 2025.